Successfully marketing new optical storage products is difficult at the best of times, so why do manufacturers insist on making it harder than it has to be? Such is the case with rewritable DVD (DVD-RAM and DVD+RW) where the industry has proven itself to be its own worst enemy by announcing higher capacity next generation devices long before they’ll ever become commercially available.
The “Osborning” of Rewritable DVD
Hugh Bennett
TapeDisc Business, November 1999
Successfully marketing new optical storage products is difficult at the best of times, so why do manufacturers insist on making it harder than it has to be? Such is the case with rewritable DVD (DVD-RAM and DVD+RW) where the industry has proven itself to be its own worst enemy by announcing higher capacity next generation devices long before they’ll ever become commercially available.
One of the cardinal rules of marketing is to sell what you have already in your hands and not to discuss your next model before it’s ready to ship for fear of confusing the customer or, at least, postponing his or her decision to buy. A legendary example of the consequences of not heeding this advice is the collapse of Osborne Computer. In 1981 journalist and author turned entrepreneur Adam Osborne introduced a revolutionary new computer that was destined to set the industry on its ear. Admittedly bulky, the Osborne 1 was the first really portable system offering impressive flexibility, power and value for a machine of its day packed as it was with 64 KB RAM, 2 floppy drives, a keyboard, built-in display and bundled software. Even though being well received, sales quickly dried up resulting in the company going bankrupt in 1983 for the simple reason that they announced their next and improved model too far in advance of its availability.
Drawing parallels between Osborne’s blunder and the recent public actions of a couple of DVD Forum members, several analysts (including John Freeman of Strategic Marketing Decisions) accuse DVD-RAM of “Osborning” itself. Due to well understood technological and cost concerns DVD-RAM was introduced in 1998 with a single sided disc capacity of 2.6 GB. However, rather than letting the product find its own way in the market, DVD-RAM manufacturers immediately set out to destroy consumer interest in what they had by announcing plans to move to 4.7 GB products before the year 2000. Now with the end of the millennium upon them, rumor has it that of all the companies involved only Matsushita has as yet been able to produce 4.7 GB media and, more to the point, none viable outside of their laboratory. Like Osborne before them it looks as if DVD-RAM manufacturers now have the honor of having shot themselves in the foot.
It’s true that companies sometimes disclose new product plans as a way of heading off imminent competition so, to be fair, there may be some method in the madness behind announcing 4.7 GB technology in advance. With its slightly higher 3.0 GB capacity and the promise of greater DVD-ROM drive compatibility the threat from DVD+RW must be taken seriously by DVD-RAM manufacturers. Consequently the possibility of sacrificing some current 2.6 GB DVD-RAM market enthusiasm for the chance of medium term gain might have been seen to be an acceptable risk. However, what isn’t so easy to understand is why DVD-RAM manufacturers even now continue to talk about the future by publicly projecting third, fourth and fifth generation products that at best won’t be available for years to come.
DVD-RAM manufacturers (Matsushita, Hitachi, Toshiba) say that the first advance beyond 4.7 GB will be 8.5 GB per side which will be achieved by using existing 650 nm lasers and more complex dual-layer phase change media. Given the realities involved it’s hard to imagine why they believe that elaborate dual-layer DVD-RAM will somehow be in early production when 4.7 GB media hasn’t as yet even left the lab and again bearing in mind that manufacturers are currently barely able to replicate conventional dual-layer DVD-9 and DVD-18 discs.
Further into the future but promoted nonetheless are even higher capacity systems realized by using shorter wavelength (425 nm) blue laser technology. So called High Density DVD-RAM (HD DVD-RAM) promises 15 GB per side on a single-layer disc and 27 GB per side employing dual layer media. And if that isn’t enough dual-layers and the latest “multi-level” recording technology promise a staggering 46 GB per side! Where does it all end? Why would anyone want to make a serious investment in DVD-RAM while at the same time being told that the current product is already obsolete and its successors will similarly be obsoleted within a year of their successive releases?
Unfortunately DVD+RW doesn’t come off any better. For many of the same reasons as its DVD-RAM rival first generation DVD+RW media offers only reduced 3.0 GB rather than full 4.7 GB capacity. Not to be out done however, the companies involved in DVD+RW (Philips, Sony, Hewlett Packard) did DVD-RAM one better by announcing that they will offer 4.7 GB products sometime in 2001 before even having sold a single 3.0 GB DVD+RW drive! How do you make sense out of that?
Obsolescence may be a fact of life in the computer industry but removable storage technologies must have a reasonable period of stability to have any chance of large scale success. Either by design or accident rewritable DVD has established itself to be transitional and in so doing has dug itself a hole that it might not be easy to crawl out of at least until the introduction of blue laser HD-DVD systems in some far off dreamtime.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Hugh Bennett, editor-in-chief of Hugh’s News, is president of Forget Me Not Information Systems, a reseller, systems integrator and industry consultant based in London, Ontario, Canada. Hugh is author of The Authoritative Blu-ray Disc (BD) FAQ and The Authoritative HD DVD FAQ, available on Hugh’s News, as well as Understanding Recordable & Rewritable DVD and Understanding CD-R & CD-RW, published by the Optical Storage Technology Association (OSTA).
Copyright © 1999 Knowledge Industry Publications / Hugh Bennett